The Mumbai-Ahmedabad bullet train is a meaningless project with little or no economic viability or justification for government services. Even the vanity that put India in the ranks of industrialized countries is too exaggerated. Although many high-speed rail (HSR) from high-income countries and certain groups of people have failed, some people gave up after graduation. Considering the huge cost, the main issue is sustainability.
Japan’s first Shinkansen connecting Tokyo and Osaka passes through major industrial and commercial centers, serving nearly 50% of Japan’s population, and carrying more than 150 million passengers per year. The legendary Paris-Lyon high-speed train in France must receive substantial subsidies on a regular basis. Argentina abandoned its high-speed rail ambitions for cost reasons and chose to upgrade its entire rail system to a medium-speed infrastructure-India should seriously consider this option. You are still not sure about the densely populated Philadelphia-Boston-New York-Washington DC industrial and commercial corridor. The Ara-Istanbul high-speed rail is the only example of a middle-income country, and its feasibility has not yet been determined.
Of course, like many other things, China is an exception. Although it is difficult to obtain reliable data on 20,000 kilometers of high-speed rail, it is well known that tariffs have been lowered many times to fill the pockets of passengers, and the railway has accumulated more than US$300 billion in domestic debt. …Is India ready for this transition?
The cost of HSR Mumbai-Ahmedabad is approximately Rs 1 crore. Estimates in the project report of the Indian Institute of Governance in Ahmedabad show that at least 100,000 passengers are required per day with fares between 4,000 and 5,000 to reach the balance of the project. The air ticket price is too high: the air ticket between the two cities is around 2500 rupees. Subsidies seem to be inevitable. Subsidies for agriculture, education and health are taboo, but subsidies for the rich do not seem to be a problem.
When more than 90% of Indian train passengers travel thousands of miles in bed or lower class, should India spend more than 100 crore on the 508-kilometer bullet train used by wealthy passengers? Unfortunately, so far, only expensive projects targeting the upper class have been considered, such as so-called “smart cities”, which are misleading. When will Deutsche Bahn invest in new roads and improve services for 90% of the traveling population? ?
A myth is spreading that the project will have a direct impact on the technology adoption in India’s future high-speed rail projects. Can you imagine India spending 15 times its operating costs on a 6,000-km high-speed rail runway than a lower-profit high-speed rail runway, as promised in the 2014 BJP election manifesto? Another misunderstanding is that Japanese funds are “almost free”, with an annual interest rate of 0.1% and a 15-year moratorium. Many economic analysts pointed out that after adjusting for exchange rates and comparable inflation, spending will be £1.5 million in 20 years.
The bullet train is a luxury project, it will only create an illusion of happiness for the rich.
When Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Prime Minister Shinzo Abe of Japan laid the foundation for India’s $19 billion high-speed rail project, it was like a distant dream come true. The project directly belongs to Prime Minister Modi and his government. Before the National League for Democracy came to power, the government led by the United Progressive Alliance was also moving towards high-speed rail, as seen in the railway budget speeches in 2009, 2010 and 2012. Mamata Banerjee, the former Minister of Railways in Parliament, also talked about high-speed rail. In 2012, the high-speed rail company was established. In May 2013, during the visit of former Prime Minister Manmohan Singh to Japan, the two countries decided to act together. Provide funding for the joint feasibility study of the Mumbai-Ahmedabad high-speed corridor.
Unfortunately, although India is the world’s third-largest railway network in terms of route length and number of passengers, it does not have a high-speed corridor. Exclusive high-speed in 15 countries around the world. Brotherhood of the bullet train.
The debate over whether India should switch to bullet trains continues. The main argument comes from some recent passenger train accidents that resulted in deaths. It cannot be denied that the existing railway infrastructure needs to be strengthened. So as to avoid accidents. From gang members to railway ministers, the attitudes of all railway workers must change to prioritize investment, operation, and maintenance of the railway network.
Due to maintenance and safety, existing systems for moving trains on overloaded networks must give way to operational safety awareness. “Safety first” should be the mantra of Indian Railways in Utkal Express and Elphinston Road Station accidents. The government announced plans to invest 8.5 million rupees in infrastructure construction in 2014, which is a two-year priority for this investment.
It is disgusting to compare investment in Shinkansen projects with investment in reconstruction and improvement of traditional railways. These investments are not comparable because they are not substitutes at all. Both of these measurements are necessary. We must take China as an example. China has built a high-speed rail network of 22,000 kilometers in the past 15 years and hopes to expand it to 30,000 kilometers in 2020.
Comments such as “A high-speed rail like a scrapped banknote will kill everything” are politically motivated remarks designed to score voters. High-speed rail is a growth factor because it will bring more liquidity. Compared with expensive and less energy-efficient air travel, bullet trains will turn stations on the route into centers of economic and industrial growth. High-speed rail also means emissions from metropolitan areas when traffic shifts from highways to railways. It is safer, faster, and cheaper, with a return rate of 11.8%. This will increase investment in infrastructure, stimulate the economy and create jobs.
Let us realize that high-speed rail is a new dimension in the field of transportation. It is a different independent business, independent of traditional railways such as subways. The finance and management of high-speed rail will have nothing to do with traditional Indian railways. Exercise your muscles and show the world our high-speed train technical capabilities, just like we did in the space and satellite programs.
The human fascination with speed is legendary. The development of civilization is closely related to the growth of speed or mobility. Reinventing the wheel, training horses, and propelling oneself with steam are all complicated links in the same chain. As the backbone of the industrial revolution experienced by the Western world in the 18th and 19th centuries.
High-speed rail (HSR) originated from competing railroads facing fast-moving cars and airplanes. The ownership of the high-speed rail network has become a symbol of national status. China took full advantage of this phenomenon by adding high-speed trains to its network in the 1990s and now has the world’s largest high-speed rail network.
It is natural for India to join the exclusive clubs of countries with high-speed rail networks. After all, he dreams of becoming the third largest economy in 25 years; it already has a nuclear arsenal and ambitious missile program, and has taken solid steps in space exploration.
But as I said, the devil is always in the details. High-speed rail is a capital-intensive project, and most importantly, India does not have the technology to run high-speed trains at all. Convert their rail system to speeds of 250 km/h or higher in ten years or more in order to be allowed to carry high-speed rail network tags.
By adopting Japanese Shinkansen technology and negotiating a large loan through the Japan International Cooperation Agency, India tried to provoke two birds with one stone, and it immediately possessed the technology and funds. The annual rate is 0.1%, the period is 50 years, and the suspension period is 15 years, which is the best in India’s history. Let us see how realistic the construction cost and time forecast are, because this is the Achilles heel of all large-scale projects in our country.
During 2014-15, the cost of the project is estimated to be approximately 98,000 rupees, of which 62% of the cost is offset by 140,000 rupees per kilometer when laying slopes. With the viaduct construction project, it has now been decided to bring complete consistency. The cost per kilometer of a project to build a subway line in India has been more than 2.5 billion rubles. Even if the speed is 100 km/h, the cost of a viaduct with a speed of up to 320 km should be much higher, and the time is 110,000 crore. According to very conservative estimates, the cost of the project will increase by approximately Rs 40,000. Project delays due to the lengthy land acquisition process may be another buffer. …
If the project is really worth about 150 billion rupees, then its feasibility will be questioned. The increase in cost will force management to increase the cost of air tickets at the beginning of the transaction. The high-speed rail line will not be profitable until it serves 50 million passengers each year. It will be useful to judge whether this expected high-speed rail tariff will benefit so many passengers. In this case, the ticket price will become very competitive.
There is no doubt that the Indian people need the high-speed rail network to support trade and commerce, but what is important is that it must ultimately be financially sustainable and improved domestically.